Fade Colorado on the Road (May 8)

Rockies vs Diamondbacks Odds

Rockies odds +132
Diamondbacks Odds -156
over under 8th
time 4:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds about FanDuel. Stay up to date MLB odds here.

After separating their first two games by an identical 4-1 score, the Rockies and Diamondbacks will determine the winner of the series Sunday afternoon.

Colorado will look to get its right-handed pitcher Germán Márquez back on track when he takes on Arizona’s Zac Gallen.

While both teams are in the top three in terms of betting window profitability, much of Colorado’s success has come from the home game. As a result, bettors should continue to pay attention to Colorado’s home/away splits when trying to find value in their matchups.

Let’s dive into this one.

Rockies will likely face regression soon

Pitching in Colorado often means Márquez is overlooked as a starter. However, since his debut with the Rockies, he’s been 54-43 with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.

Those are impressive numbers for a pitcher who spends most of his starts at a hitter-friendly park like Coors Field. According to baseball reference, Marquez is 27-19 at home with a 4.82 ERA vs. 27-24 with a 3.90 ERA on the road. These numbers confirm that he is more likely to benefit from Colorado’s offense at home due to his higher win ratio (.587 vs. .529) despite a worse ERA.

However, Márquez seems to have struggled both at home and away this season. Aside from his first start this year, when he went seven innings and conceded one run against the Dodgers, Márquez has served poorly.

In his last 19 innings of work, he has conceded 19 earned runs. Marquez is almost unrecognizable from the pitcher who played against the Dodgers, and while I’m sure he has some quality left, I’d feel more comfortable backing him up at this point if the Rockies take the game in Colorado would play .

Before the season, the Rockies had a projected win total of just 68.5. After 27 games, Colorado is well ahead of that mark with a 16-11 record. However, 11 of those 16 wins have come at Coors Field as the Rockies are 5-6 on the road.

Per its Pythagorean expectation, Colorado outperforms given its .593 win ratio, despite scoring fewer (125) runs than allowed (134). As a result, it’s difficult to ignore the looming regression that looms over the Rockies like a dark cloud.


Diamondbacks have the advantage of a potential quality start

Bookmakers were even more pessimistic about the Diamondbacks, who opened with just 66.5 games winning total. While Arizona’s prospects looked bleak after a 3-7 start, the Diamondbacks have lost 11-7 in their next 18 games.

One of the reasons the Diamondbacks struggled early on was that Gallen didn’t start until April 16 due to injury. He’s been 1-0 in 21 1/3 innings since his debut with a 1.27 ERA and .70 WHIP. More importantly, Arizona is 3-1 in their four starts.

In 54 career starts, Gallen is only 11-18, but he has an excellent 3.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. If the Diamondbacks can continue to provide running support for Gallen, I would support him for another productive season. Still only 26 years old, Gallen has only pitched more than 100 innings once in his five-year career. As a result, it’s still an undervalued commodity in the majors.

According to Baseball Savant, Gallen can throw six different pitches: a fourseamer (55.8%), a curveball (16.3%), a changeup (15.4%), a cutter (10.1%), a slider (2 .1%) and a sinker (0.3%). Though he rarely uses his slider and sinker, opposing hitters still account for his four other pitches, which he throws at least 10% of the time.

It’s not often that a young pitcher masters so many different pitches. According to FanGraphs, he pitches more into the strike zone (44.8%), yet hitters have the lowest zone contact rate (84.3%) against him.

Gallen has thrown at least six innings in each of his last two games. If he can continue to get deeper into games, the Diamondbacks should be able to win most of his starts.

Rockies Diamondbacks pick

Our BetLabs database shows that the Colorado Rockies have the second best home grade (+23.79 units) in 2005. However, they also have the second-worst grade away with -107.31 units.

This certainly supports the narrative that you should keep supporting the Rockies at home and they should fade on the streets. If we look at their season splits, Colorado has a line of .281/.348/.454 at home vs. .230/.300/.366 on the road. There is certainly enough sample size to support our analysis.

As a result, I don’t want any part of the Rockies on the road, so I can only look back at the home favorites at this point.

Choose: Diamondbacks ML (-156)

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