Deseret News writer McCade Pearson predicts 6A, 5A baseball playoffs

Editor’s note: Deseret News’ McCade Pearson, a graduate of Riverton High, has a passion for all sports, including high school sports. He is also passionate about sports analysis, refining formulas and models for his own power ranking and state tournament prediction system. Here’s his take on the upcoming 6A, 5A baseball playoffs.


Throughout my life, two things have always been connected – my love of sports and my love of numbers. The last decade has given me the opportunity to work in athletics and get a degree in mathematics and statistics.

As I glanced over the blank brackets ahead of the final RPI release, my mind wandered and I started thinking about all the exciting things that could happen over the next few weeks. Using my unique regular season power ranking system, I created a few models to try to predict what might develop in the 6A and 5A baseball state tournaments.

The prediction model I designed rewards teams for the past two seasons’ results, with additional weight being added to the current season for obvious reasons. It has aspects that attempt to make it predictable for the future rather than analytical for the past. Trying to predict the future is always a work in progress in sport.

There is always another number to crack and another variable to consider and quantify. I freely admit that these predictions are far from perfect and I will probably spend a lot of time refining and redefining them in the coming months to try to bring the final results for numerous sports closer to reality .

But that’s what makes the sport great. No matter how many predictions are made, the future is only one reality. Below is a summary of 100,000 simulations for each 6A and 5A baseball tournament. And yet, when players actually take the field in the coming weeks, only one version of each game will be played, only one team will claim a win, and they will only do so once when a champion is crowned. We just have no idea which of the infinite simulations that will be, and that’s the magic of the sport.

Contrary to my predictions for the football states – which are single eliminations – the higher seeded teams are much more likely to advance in the baseball states due to the double elimination format.

The 5A tournament began on Friday with play-in matches, and on Saturday the first round of the 6A and 5A tournaments began.


6A model predictions

Note: The ranking column is the power ranking formula I created. The other columns are the odds of reaching those rounds of the playoffs.

Predicting a 6A baseball tournament

teams rank RPI SR F8 F6 F4 final champion
Binham 2049.1 2 100% 98% 91% 81% 62% 35%
Fremont 2056.4 1 100% 99% 92% 78% 52% 32%
American fork 2013.7 5 100% 97% 86% 63% 30% 16%
Lonely peak 1958.9 4 100% 94% 74% 44% 17% 7%
Riverton 1909.3 3 100% 92% 72% 47% 16% 4%
Taylorsville 1875.3 6 100% 89% 64% 34% 9% 2%
Pleasant grove 1884.1 7 100% 62% 41% 22% 7% 2%
West Bank 1847.4 8th 100% 69% 37% 16% 4% 1%
sky ridge 1853.4 10 99% 38% 20% 8th% 2% 1%
Farmington 1781.1 9 99% 31% 13% 5% 1% 0%
weaver 1724.5 13 89% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0%
ridges 1711.5 16 79% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Davis 1667.5 11 98% 11% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Herrmann 1634.6 14 77% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0%
copper mountains 1582.1 17 21% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
west 1328.3 24 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
kearns 1487.6 12 49% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Syracuse 1518.9 21 51% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roy 1514.9 20 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
layton 1521.6 19 23% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
clear field 1275.2 22 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
western lake 1365.5 23 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
corner canyon 1663.2 15 70% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Cyprus 1590.8 18 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

5A model predictions

Note: The ranking column is the power ranking formula I created. The other columns are the odds of reaching those rounds of the playoffs.

Predicting a 5A baseball tournament

teams rank RPI SR F8 F6 F4 final champion
Jordan 1894.6 3 100% 91% 80% 63% 39% 24%
Spanish fork 1869.8 1 100% 91% 79% 64% 40% 21%
Lehi 1868.5 2 100% 91% 77% 58% 32% 18%
cramming 1838.7 8th 100% 85% 65% 43% 20% 10%
poplar 1816.2 5 100% 83% 66% 44% 20% 8th%
Olympus 1813.8 4 100% 82% 64% 42% 19% 8th%
park city 1785.9 6 100% 79% 57% 33% 13% 5%
forest cross 1784.0 7 100% 76% 52% 29% 11% 4%
Wasatch 1731.0 13 70% 21% 12% 6% 2% 1%
horizon 1733.9 16 56% 13% 8th% 4% 1% 0%
plentiful 1706.0 10 80% 20% 11% 5% 1% 0%
Uintah 1729.9 17 44% 10% 6% 3% 1% 0%
murray 1652.9 11 61% 12% 5% 2% 0% 0%
tools 1660.3 20 30% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0%
Brighton 1625.5 15 74% 9% 4% 1% 0% 0%
Orem 1633.5 9 54% 6% 3% 1% 0% 0%
box elder 1641.6 24 46% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0%
Salem Hill 1588.3 12 55% 6% 2% 1% 0% 0%
Viewmont 1570.3 14 50% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Springville 1595.6 19 50% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0%
maple mountain 1624.2 22 39% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Northridge 1590.9 21 45% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Stansbury 1570.4 23 20% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Payson 1531.1 18 26% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

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