2022 Stanley Cup Final: Avalanche vs. Lightning odds, NHL picks, Game 2 prediction from advanced hockey model

The Colorado Avalanche are looking for a little less drama Saturday night when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 2 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals. The Avalanche led 3-1 after halftime Wednesday night at Denver’s Ball Arena, but Tampa Bay rallied to force overtime. Andre Burakovsky made it quick by scoring just 1:23 in the final period, but Colorado will try not to upset its fans this time. It still faces a tall order against a Lightning team that has won the last two NHL titles. Colorado is in the finals for the first time in 21 years but has won both appearances, beating the Panthers in 1995-96 and the Devils in 2000-01.

The opening faceoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Colorado as the -150 favorite (risk $150 to win $100) on the moneyline in the latest Avalanche vs. Lightning odds. Tampa Bay is a +130 underdog, and the over-under for total goals scored is set at six. Before hitting Lightning vs. Avalanche tips, check out the SportsLine projection model NHL predictions.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It goes into the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals on a 23-18 run on its top NHL sidepicks. Everyone who’s followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now the model has her sights set on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the selection. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs:

  • Avalanche vs. Lightning moneyline: Colorado -150, Tampa Bay +130
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning Over-Under: 6 goals
  • Avalanche vs. Lightning Puck Line: Colorado -1.5 (+170)
  • Avalanche vs Lightning Tickets: See Tickets at StubHub
  • COL:C Nathan MacKinnon has at least a point in 13 of the 15 playoff games.
  • TB:D Mikhail Sergachev has two goals and two assists in the last three competitions.

Featured Game | Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Why the Avalanche can win

Colorado is 38-6-5 at home this season while the Lightning are 29-19-3 on the road and the favorite is 16-5 for the past 21 games. The Avalanche were buzzing at the start of Game 1, with fresh legs and some energy after beating the Oilers in the West Finals. They scored 22 goals in those four games and have 69 in their 15 playoff games. MacKinnon and defenseman Cale Makar are superstars, but Colorado has plenty of talented complements. Makar leads the team into the playoffs with 22 points and 17 assists.

MacKinnon has 11 goals, five on the power play and 19 points. Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen also have 19 points. Landeskog scored Wednesday night along with Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin, who are also among seven players with at least 10 postseason points. The Avalanche are 10-1 in their last 11 games on a two-day break, and the Lightning are still recovering from a six-game streak with the Rangers. Colorado overtook Tampa Bay 38-23 in Game 1, and Lightning had four takeaways while Avalanche had 17.

Why the Flash can win

Tampa Bay has led 5-2 in the last seven meetings between teams in Colorado, and it plays best when it has its back against the wall. After losing 2-0 to Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the team bounced back and won four straight games. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy’s streak of 17 straight wins after a playoff loss was broken in Game 2 of that series. He has a 92.6 save percentage and an average of 2.36 clean sheets in the postseason and has conceded a goal or fewer in eight of his 18 games. Colorado has conceded at least two goals in 13 of its 15 games.

Vasilevskiy receives strong protection from annual Norris Trophy finalist Victor Hedman and rising youngster Mikhail Sergachev. The 6-foot-6 Hedman, who won the award in 2018, causes all sorts of problems for forwards with his reach, and he and Sergachev have blocked 62 shots combined in the playoffs. The Lightning sold out throughout the postseason stopping shots, blocking 298, led by Ryan McDonough with 54. Steven Stamkos and Ondrej Palat have nine goals each, and Nikita Kucherov has 17 assists and 24 points as the team-best.

How to do Lightning vs Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model leans towards the sum as the simulations combine the teams for 7.1 goals. It also says that one side of the money line has all the value. You only get the choice at SportsLine.

Who Will Win Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 2 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the money line Avalanche vs Lightning to jump to, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.

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