The UFC returns to Vegas after a hugely entertaining card in Austin, Texas.
This weekend is one of the best to bet on MMA. Between Saturday’s UFC and Friday’s PFL and Bellator fights, we have 38 fights to bet on.
This amount of bouts in a 24 hour period is something that all mixed martial arts fans will enjoy. With that, we’re going to break down the UFC fights tonight.
Hopefully Saturday is a fruitful endeavor for all who attend.
Arman Tsarukyan (-300) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (+240)
Very seldom do we see top personalities face off this early in their careers, but that’s exactly what we got between Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot. These two fighters are 38-3 combined in their MMA careers – both are incredibly high quality fighters and we’re going to be happy.
They are also master grapplers leading tonight’s main card. This could be a point where the grappling is so high profile that neither fighter even tries to grapple.
Tsarukyan is a five-game winner in a row, with his most recent loss to current UFC lightweight No. 1 Islam Makhachev. Even that fight was very competitive and it’s entirely possible that Tsarukyan is a future titleholder in the 155lb division.
Last time out against Joel Alvarez, he made it seem like Alvarez didn’t even deserve to be with him on his way to a TKO win.
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Gamrot is 20-1 in his career and 3-1 in the UFC with three finishes. He absolutely passed UFC veteran Jeremy Stephens in 65 seconds. He’s a truly formidable athlete with frenetic wrestling scrambles that even the best grappler finds difficult to escape.
Gamrot as this big underdog is very interesting because his grappling should be on par with Tsarukyan. Tsarukyan has better kicks than Gamrot and has the power advantage. However, without Tsarukyan’s feints to get him up, that might even things out in terms of his ability to control the octagon.
For reference, this line opened at -140/+120. Value is on Gamrot in a five-round battle this weekend. Neither fighter gets tired and both have phenomenal durability.
Expect this fight to be a highly competitive fight with no clear choice to actually win the fight. The competition could be a stalemate, resulting in a low value decision for Gamrot, which shouldn’t be higher than +165.
UFC Fight Night selection
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Neil Magny (+300) vs Shavkat Rakhmonov (-420)
Neil Magny will fight another up-and-coming contender in Shavkat Rakhomov in the UFC welterweight division. Rakhmonov has simply dominated the competition up to this point.
His 15-0 record includes eight wins by KO/TKO and seven submissions. Magny will be by far his most difficult opponent so far. It is also the first time Rakhmonov has been undersized in his UFC career.
He usually uses his 6ft 1 frame and length to control the cage. His push kicks and front jab usually land his opponent on his back leg. This is a great setup that gives him complete control over fights. From here, he can land heavy punches that can lead to knockouts or desperate takedown attempts.
This fight will be very difficult to implement this style against Magny. He loves to fight in clinch and is difficult to defeat. Once knocked down, he’s been choked by four opponents in his career.
This is the only bet that has true value. A takedown attempt by Magny followed by a scramble where Rakhmonov ends up on top, heavy ground and pounds and a submission.
Rakhmonov is likely to face the best forward of his career. His kicks are excellent, but against the 6ft 3 Magny it’s harder to imagine another head kick KO.
For riskier bettors, a submission win in rounds two or three pays Rakhmonov 11/1 on FanDuel.
UFC Fight Night selection
- Rakhmonov wins by submission +420 (FanDuel)
UFC fight night parlay today
As usual, these parlay odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and were correct at the time of writing.
TJ Brown -194 + Thiago Moises -265 + Tafon Nchuwki -128 + Paiva/Morozov GTD (-142) = +533 odds